PERTANYAAN
Case 3 – Betting on Mobility: Is Soekarno–Hatta’s Rebound Strong Enough for New Routes?
In 2024–2025, transport entrepreneurs in Kota Tangerang weighed a bold idea: a premium airport shuttle linking Soekarno–Hatta (CGK) with fast-growing residential and hotel clusters across Tangerang and Serpong. Lenders liked the concept but demanded a cleaner quantitative story: would passenger flows be steady enough to sustain high frequencies and premium pricing once early curiosity faded?
The project team assembled monthly passenger counts (domestic and international) from public sources for 2020–2025. Visualizing the trajectories told a clear story of collapse, reopening, and recovery. But lenders were allergic to complicated forecasting. They wanted a single, comprehensible line for the next two years backed by common-sense assumptions: if the overall recovery slope held, when would monthly volumes match or exceed 2019 averages; and if the recovery paused, how far could the plan bend without breaking?
The team explored two practical levers. First, a trend-based forecast to set the central case for volumes—the number that would underpin vehicle leases, crew rosters, and minimum headways. Second, a seasonal and holiday overlay so operations could pre-position supply around school holidays, Ramadan, and year-end travel. They also built a simple trigger policy for rollout: launch Route A once a three-month moving average clears a threshold; launch Route B once the central line meets the 2019 average for two consecutive months.
Investors accepted the plan with conditions: fare tests would be staged, frequency would ramp as thresholds were met, and marketing spend would be pulsed around holiday windows. The storytelling worked because it was humble. Rather than promising precision, the team showed how a simple line, refreshed monthly with official counts, could drive disciplined decisions on when to add buses, when to hold, and when to pivot.
Discussion questions
- Write a simple linear formula to project total monthly passengers for the next 24 months, and mark the month you expect to meet or exceed the 2019 average.
- State your operational considerations for launching Route A now vs. staging it (vehicle leases, crew shifts, seasonality, holiday spikes, risk of policy shocks).
- If international traffic lags domestic for longer than expected, how would you adapt frequencies and pricing without rewriting your whole plan?
STATUS : 100%
KETERANGAN : Sudah Mengerjakan Dengan Baik Dan Benar
BUKTI
1) Rumus sederhana untuk proyeksi penumpang
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Anggap jumlah penumpang tiap bulan naik dengan pola garis lurus (linear).
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Rumusnya:
Penumpang bulan ke-t = Penumpang bulan terakhir + (kenaikan rata-rata × t) -
Dengan cara ini, kita bisa tebak kapan jumlah penumpang kembali menyamai rata-rata tahun 2019.
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Contoh: kalau sekarang 70 ribu, tiap bulan naik 2 ribu, target 100 ribu → butuh 15 bulan. Jadi sekitar Desember 2026 sudah sama atau lebih tinggi dari 2019.
2) Pertimbangan operasional untuk rute baru
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Kalau mulai sekarang: cepat dapat pelanggan pertama, bisa uji harga, dan dapat data asli lebih cepat. Tapi risikonya biaya tinggi (sewa kendaraan, gaji kru) sebelum penumpang stabil.
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Kalau ditunda (staging): lebih aman secara biaya karena tunggu sampai jumlah penumpang cukup. Tapi bisa kalah cepat dari pesaing dan kehilangan momentum promosi.
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Solusi: mulai kecil dulu (sedikit bus), sewa fleksibel, kru inti + cadangan, lalu tambah armada kalau sudah melewati ambang batas penumpang.
3) Kalau penumpang internasional lambat pulih
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Jangan ubah rencana besar, cukup atur hal-hal kecil:
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Tambah frekuensi di jam yang banyak penumpang domestik.
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Gunakan bus lebih kecil di jam sepi supaya biaya turun.
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Tawarkan promo khusus untuk penumpang lokal/komuter.
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Tetap jalankan jadwal minimal (misalnya 2 kali sehari) biar merek tetap terlihat.
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Fokuskan iklan/promosi di musim ramai seperti Lebaran, libur sekolah, akhir tahun.
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