Instruksi:
1) Write a simple linear formula that uses time or the headline index as the driver for a province-wide pricing baseline and use it to predict the next 12 months.
2) Based on your formula, which two categories would you exempt from a blunt markup in the next quarter, and why? State the operational considerations (promo calendars, supply lead times, festival seasonality, supplier terms).
3) If a fuel-price adjustment occurs next month, how would you update your formula or assumptions without overreacting.
Status: 100%
Keterangan: Sudah mengerjakan dengan semaksimal mungkin.
Bukti:
1) Write a simple linear formula that uses time or the headline index as the driver for a province-wide pricing baseline and use it to predict the next 12 months.
• ANSWER: Pt = P0 x (1 + 0.003 x t)
Pt = predicted baseline index at month $t$
P0 = latest observed headline index (say June 2025 = 100)
0.003 = average monthly drift (+0.3%)
t = number of months ahead
• The prediction for next 12 months: headline index drifts +3.6% by June 2026.
2) Based on your formula, which two categories would you exempt from a blunt markup in the next quarter, and why? State the operational considerations (promo calendars, supply lead times, festival seasonality, supplier terms).
• ANSWER: Food & non-alcoholic beverages → Prone to short spikes (festivals, supply glitches, fuel pass-through). Bursts don’t always last, so markups here risk customer pushback if done too aggressively.
Ops considerations: festival calendar, supplier promos, short shelf-life, consumer sensitivity.
• Transport → Moves erratically with fuel policy. Customers notice immediately (commuting, delivery fees).
Ops considerations: government fuel price announcements, lag in transport surcharges, supplier freight contracts.
3) If a fuel-price adjustment occurs next month, how would you update your formula or assumptions without overreacting.
• ANSWER: Don’t rewrite the whole baseline formula. Keep the same linear drift for the provincial anchor as well as add a temporary category adjustment for transport and food, but only the if pass-through is big.
• Use a “flag rule”: If transport runs >2% above headline for 2 straight months, allow discretionary markup.