BD309
Pertanyaan :
Status :
100% Tercapai
Keterangan :
Saya sudah mengerjakan Assignment BD309 dengan baik
Bukti :
- Write a simple linear formula to project total monthly passengers for the next 24 months, and mark the month you expect to meet or exceed the 2019 average.
To estimate the total monthly passengers for the next 24 months, the team implemented a simple linear regression model:
[Y_t = a + b \cdot t]
Explanation:
(Y_t) = total passengers in month (t) (in thousands)
(a) = starting point of recovery (e.g., average number of passengers in January 2024)
(b) = average monthly growth (based on trends from 2022 to 2025)
(t) = month sequence (1 to 24 for the next two years)
Assuming that monthly growth remains constant, the linear line is estimated to reach or exceed the 2019 average around the 14th to 16th month (around March to May 2025). This point indicates that passenger volume has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
- State your operational considerations for launching Route A now vs. staging it (vehicle leases, crew shifts, seasonality, holiday spikes, risk of policy shocks).
Vehicle Leasing: Starting Route A now means starting a long-term contract earlier, which means an increase in fixed costs. Delaying the launch provides flexibility, but there is a risk of losing market appeal.
Team Schedule: The team recruitment and training process will be smoother with a gradual schedule. If launched earlier, the team will need to be prepared with overtime costs or backup labor.
Seasonality & Holiday Surge: If the launch coincides with Ramadan or school holidays, there is potential for a larger market trial. However, outside of busy periods, load factors may be low.
Policy Risk: Sudden changes in travel or public transportation regulations could disrupt operations. Delaying the launch provides time to monitor regulatory stability.
Conclusion: Testing the market during holidays with a limited launch is the right move, while a full launch is wiser once trends show consistency above safe thresholds.
- If international traffic lags domestic for longer than expected, how would you adapt frequencies and pricing without rewriting your whole plan?
3) Adjustments in the Event of Slow International Recovery
If international traffic does not recover as quickly as domestic traffic:
Frequency: Prioritize high frequency for domestic segments (flights between major domestic cities), while maintaining minimum frequency for routes that depend on international passengers.
Pricing: Implement a flexible pricing strategy — lower prices for low-risk routes (busy domestic routes), while maintaining premium prices for routes close to hotels or expat areas.
Gradual Scaling: Expand the fleet only when domestic load factors show stability.
No Total Revision: The basic strategy (launch triggers, seasonal focus) remains consistent, only the proportion between domestic and international routes is changed.